Abstract #124  -  How investing in HIV now will change your long term economic growth?
Authors:   Presenting Author:   Mr Erik Lamontagne - UNAIDS
Additional Authors:  Dr Erik Lamontagne, Dr Bruno Ventelou, Dr Robert Greener, Dr Mohammad Abu-Zeineh, Dr Mohammad Afridi, Dr Yves Arrighi,
Aim: There is currently no analytical tool to take into account the economic impact of a complete response to HIV at country level in the longer term. This work intends to provide an analytical model to support the assessment for sustaining Universal Access to HIV prevention, care, support and treatment at country level.
Method / Issue: Economic outcomes of main activities for HIV refer to different time scales. ARV have an immediate impact on productivity and economic output, while prevention would start showing impact on output in 8-15 years. PMCT or Orphan activities are intergenerational. The model needs to be dynamic to fully reflect those particular timeframes of the Response. We present an endogenous growth model that can take into account the distinct impacts of those particular activities.
Results / Comments: The innovation of the model is its capacity to translate the microeconomic effects into long term macroeconomic consequence such as economic growth. To perform such a “transmission of effects” of the country’s Response to HIV, we are using dynamic micro simulation studies from Demographic Health Surveys. The preliminary results, i.e. the impact of different combinations of HIV activities and policies will be presented in AIDS Impact in Gaborone. Following the discussions during the conference, the calibration of the macroeconomic model will be completed during last quarter of 2009.
Discussion: The opportunity to model and represent long-run economic effects rather than short term static impact brings about a new era to the decision-making process of the response to HIV at country level.
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