Amsterdam 2015
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| Abstract #2120 - Poster 1 | ||||
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Session: 58.5: Poster 1 (Poster) on Tuesday in Chaired by Authors: Presenting Author: Dr Charl Swart - University of the Western Cape, South Africa |
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| Additional Authors: Dr Kouassi Martin, Mr Brou Sylvain, | ||||
| Aim: This article reviews the methodology of future scenario-building in the context of HIV and AIDS in Africa. It considers three scenario studies conducted in the past decade: UNAIDS (2005), Metropolitan Holdings (2006), and the AIDS Governance scenarios (2015). The article is a critical reflection of Future Studies epistemology, which claims to contribute a unique heuristic niche in the study of AIDS. | ||||
| Method / Issue: The stark reality of AIDS in South Africa has generated several industries. Amongst others, an interdisciplinary knowledge industry has flourished, facilitating the operationalisation of multiple and diverse methodologies to understand the epidemic. One of these is Future Studies broadly, and scenario methodology specifically. | ||||
| Results / Comments: The article offers a number of methodological insights: (1) despite claims to the contrary, scenario methodology remains profoundly influenced by existing political and research agendas instead of denying these, scenarists should acknowledge this (2) the utility of scenario studies is strongly influenced by their unit of analysis and their timeframe, which determine their applicability and therefore their policy relevance (3) scenario planners should guard against perpetuating the myth that this methodology is a crystal ball into the future instead they are powerful tools for strategic planning about the present, rather than the distant future. In addition to these methodological insights, the article finds that future scenario studies are useful in identifying significant discursive and policy shifts in the AIDS response. | ||||
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